Thursday, December 15, 2005
Is Online Poker Rigged?
If you have been on 2+2, paid attention to the chat box at a poker game, or read any online poker forum, I'm sure that you would be more than familiar with the arguments on both sides to this question. You have heard terms like "Riverstars", "only at Paradise", etc., etc. I have been playing online poker for about a year and a half, and to be completely honest, part of me has said "Wow, that guy has caught a two outer the last three hands he has been in a pot. How the fuck is that possible". Being of sound mind I would say there is no way online poker is rigged. But I would be lying if I said I have not had weak moments where I have turned over to the other side. Tonight I experienced one of my weaker moments. I was in a $20 multi table tourney on www.Bugsysclub.com and I was on a final table 7 handed. I will present three hands that happened withing 5 minutes of each other, with 10 hands played during that span. I will put the percentages next to each player as the cards are dealt. Keep in mind however, these are short stacks vs. big stacks.
3,000 Pu-238 folds
CaseyJones folds
anthrolizard raises 6,000 to 9,000
Jazzdog folds
newmon calls 9,000
capt.kirk folds
Spiegel folds
Jimmy19 folds
WillEpm folds
shag773 folds
>>>DEALING FLOP<<< [ 4s Jh Tc ]
anthrolizard bets 21,000 and is all-in
newmon calls 21,000
anthrolizard cards were Ad Ah 76%
newmon cards were Jc Kc 24%
>>>DEALING TURN<<<
[ Ks ]
Ad Ah 27%
Kc Jc 73%
>>>DEALING RIVER<<<
[ Kh ]
newmon wins 69,500 with a full house, kings full of jacks
anthrolizard has left the table
anthrolizard finishes in 10th place
capt.kirk folds
Spiegel folds
Jimmy19 folds
WillEpm folds
shag773 folds
Pu-238 folds
CaseyJones calls 3,000
Jazzdog calls 1,500
newmon checks
>>>DEALING FLOP<<< [ 3d 2h 5d ]
Jazzdog bets 13,500
newmon folds CaseyJones raises 22,000 to 35,500 and is all-in Jazzdog calls 22,000 CaseyJones cards were 7d 7s 65%
Jazzdog cards were Ad 3h 35%
>>>DEALING TURN<<<
[ Ah ]
>>>DEALING RIVER<<<
[ 3s ]
Jazzdog wins 84,500 with a full house, threes full of aces
CaseyJones has left the table
CaseyJones finishes in 9th place
capt.kirk folds
Spiegel folds
Jimmy19 folds
WillEpm folds
shag773 raises 3,000 to 6,000
Jazzdog folds
newmon raises 80,000 to 86,000 and is all-in
shag773 calls 12,500 and is all-in
newmon takes back 67,500
newmon cards were 8s Ad 28%
shag773 cards were Ks Kc 72%
>>>DEALING FLOP<<<
[ Qc Js Kh ]
Ks Kc 86%
8s Ad 14%
>>>DEALING TURN<<<
[ Td ]
shag773: gg
>>>DEALING RIVER<<< [ 4s ] newmon wins 42,000 with an ace high straight shag773 has left the table shag773 finishes in 7th place Jazzdog: gg Jimmy19: gg WillEpm: gg
I did not post this as a standard bad beat rant, but to raise a question. I'm sure you all have been at the end of a tournament and seen a stretch like this where small stacks are being knocked off one at a time being a 2 to 1, 3 to 1, or 4 to 1 favorite. My question isn't simply "is online poker rigged?", but rather, is there any inherent advantage for an online site to remove short stacks and shorten the length of a tournament? I am not intelligent enough to run through these numbers and tell you one way or another, but I can tell you that this is a question I have posed to myself on numerous occasions. Have you asked yourself this? If you have, what have you concluded? Or, is this just "poker" and this theory holds no water. I would be interested on people's take on this, because I know I am not the only one that has noticed this. My take is, 95% of the time I feel as though I am in a square game with a random deal. The other 5% of the time, I am teetering on the fence.
Also, if you are an NFL fan I welcome you to read my previous post about how I see the Colt's place in history versus some of the greatest teams of all time. I will post about how I see the playoffs shaking out after this weekend's game, and a college bowl preview.
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