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Thursday, December 15, 2005

 

Is Online Poker Rigged?


If you have been on 2+2, paid attention to the chat box at a poker game, or read any online poker forum, I'm sure that you would be more than familiar with the arguments on both sides to this question. You have heard terms like "Riverstars", "only at Paradise", etc., etc. I have been playing online poker for about a year and a half, and to be completely honest, part of me has said "Wow, that guy has caught a two outer the last three hands he has been in a pot. How the fuck is that possible". Being of sound mind I would say there is no way online poker is rigged. But I would be lying if I said I have not had weak moments where I have turned over to the other side. Tonight I experienced one of my weaker moments. I was in a $20 multi table tourney on www.Bugsysclub.com and I was on a final table 7 handed. I will present three hands that happened withing 5 minutes of each other, with 10 hands played during that span. I will put the percentages next to each player as the cards are dealt. Keep in mind however, these are short stacks vs. big stacks.

3,000 Pu-238 folds
CaseyJones folds
anthrolizard raises 6,000 to 9,000
Jazzdog folds
newmon calls 9,000
capt.kirk folds
Spiegel folds
Jimmy19 folds
WillEpm folds
shag773 folds
>>>DEALING FLOP<<< [ 4s Jh Tc ]

anthrolizard bets 21,000 and is all-in
newmon calls 21,000
anthrolizard cards were Ad Ah 76%
newmon cards were Jc Kc 24%
>>>DEALING TURN<<<

[ Ks ]
Ad Ah 27%
Kc Jc 73%
>>>DEALING RIVER<<<

[ Kh ]
newmon wins 69,500 with a full house, kings full of jacks
anthrolizard has left the table
anthrolizard finishes in 10th place

capt.kirk folds
Spiegel folds
Jimmy19 folds
WillEpm folds
shag773 folds
Pu-238 folds
CaseyJones calls 3,000
Jazzdog calls 1,500
newmon checks
>>>DEALING FLOP<<< [ 3d 2h 5d ]
Jazzdog bets 13,500
newmon folds CaseyJones raises 22,000 to 35,500 and is all-in Jazzdog calls 22,000 CaseyJones cards were 7d 7s 65%
Jazzdog cards were Ad 3h 35%
>>>DEALING TURN<<<

[ Ah ]
>>>DEALING RIVER<<<
[ 3s ]
Jazzdog wins 84,500 with a full house, threes full of aces
CaseyJones has left the table
CaseyJones finishes in 9th place

capt.kirk folds
Spiegel folds
Jimmy19 folds
WillEpm folds
shag773 raises 3,000 to 6,000
Jazzdog folds
newmon raises 80,000 to 86,000 and is all-in
shag773 calls 12,500 and is all-in
newmon takes back 67,500
newmon cards were 8s Ad 28%
shag773 cards were Ks Kc 72%
>>>DEALING FLOP<<<

[ Qc Js Kh ]
Ks Kc 86%
8s Ad 14%
>>>DEALING TURN<<<

[ Td ]
shag773: gg
>>>DEALING RIVER<<< [ 4s ] newmon wins 42,000 with an ace high straight shag773 has left the table shag773 finishes in 7th place Jazzdog: gg Jimmy19: gg WillEpm: gg

I did not post this as a standard bad beat rant, but to raise a question. I'm sure you all have been at the end of a tournament and seen a stretch like this where small stacks are being knocked off one at a time being a 2 to 1, 3 to 1, or 4 to 1 favorite. My question isn't simply "is online poker rigged?", but rather, is there any inherent advantage for an online site to remove short stacks and shorten the length of a tournament? I am not intelligent enough to run through these numbers and tell you one way or another, but I can tell you that this is a question I have posed to myself on numerous occasions. Have you asked yourself this? If you have, what have you concluded? Or, is this just "poker" and this theory holds no water. I would be interested on people's take on this, because I know I am not the only one that has noticed this. My take is, 95% of the time I feel as though I am in a square game with a random deal. The other 5% of the time, I am teetering on the fence.

Also, if you are an NFL fan I welcome you to read my previous post about how I see the Colt's place in history versus some of the greatest teams of all time. I will post about how I see the playoffs shaking out after this weekend's game, and a college bowl preview.

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Monday, December 12, 2005

 

How to turn one cent into 35 dollars


For anyone that has stumbled upon these humble blog, you may have noted that I am my worst critic. There is nothing that pisses me off more than when my poker play is off. Normally I don't blame the other players, the site's rng, or the poker gods, I blame myself for making poor decisions. Well, let me be the first to pat myself on the back for my recent play. To set the scene, I am at the first site I ever played real money poker at (www.bugsysclub.com) last Friday night. I notice I have .01 left in my account. Believe it or not, Bugsys is the only site I know of that has a .01 buy-in tourney. Well, as luck would have it, it was just about to start, and my Friday night was free (I am such a fucking loser). It is a standard turbo tournament, but you start with T5000. Also, as you can imagine, you are not exactly playing against the stiffest competition in the world. Much to my surprise, I was able to outlast 228 of the worst players known to man to win the tourney with a net profit of $6.72 cents. It took about three hours, and to be honest, I didn't even break a sweat. My hands surprisingly held up, and my opponents were fairly easy to read. It was my first tournament win in a real money tourney (if you can call it that) and I was pretty fucking geeked. I take my new found winnings into a $2 sit and go. I win that sittie in under an hour, again not really breaking a sweat, pulling in a $9 profit ballooning my bankroll to $15 dollars. If I had a girlfriend, we would be living ghettofabulous at the country buffet. However, since I'm single and bored, I press my luck and pop into a $5 sittie. I think you are starting to see the pattern here. I take first, pulling in a $19.50 profit, giving me a monster bankroll of 35 dollars. I thought about withdrawing that money and taking my chances at the big game in the Bellagio, but I'm not sure I could withstand the embarrassment of looking at Chip Reese's face as I open the betting with $34.50 (I'll tip the guard to let me in). In the immortal words of George Costanza "I'm back baby!".

Thoughts on the NFL, and whatever pops in my head

Watching the Colts play this Sunday, it occurred to me that I may be watching the greatest football team of all time. Well, it didn't just occur to me, but I couldn't help but think who could be better than the Colts at this point. Granted, they still have a Super Bowl to win, but anyone who thinks that there is a team out there that can stay with the Colts has to stop huffing the keyboard cleaner. Let' s break down some of the best teams of all time, and you come to your own conclusion.

San Francisco 49ers (1981-1994)
This is a team that is loaded with Hall of Fame offensive players. Joe Montana was the best there is, the best there was, and the best there ever will be. The same holds true for Jerry Rice. Steve Young picked up where Montana left off. John Taylor was the best second receiver ever to play the game. Bill Walsh is the greatest offensive mind in NFL history. The offensive line is underrated, but when you have a quarterback that gets rid of the ball in 3.5 seconds every play, it does make life easier. The defense is also underrated, with Ronnie Lott as the best corner in the league, than later becoming a hall of famer as the best safety of all time. You also had Pierce Holt, Charles Haley and later Ken Norton Jr holding down the fort in the front seven. Were they underrated? Yes they were. Were the dominant? No, they were not. They did enough to give Montana and Young a chance to win, but you can't really point at a big playoff game or Super Bowl and say that they stepped up and won that game. Granted, they didn't have to, but the point remains the same. The Colts have the best defense right now in football. I don't put this Colts team in the same historical league as the Niners, but judging the Niners best season against what the Colts are doing now, the Colts are far and away better than the Niners. If the Colts win three out of the next four bowls, I give the Colts the historical edge.

Pittsburgh Steelers (1974-1979)
The Steel Curtain defense will go down in history as the greatest defense of all time. It's not even close. Mean Joe Green, Jack Lambert, Jack Ham, Mel Blount, were all just as tenacious against the run as they were against the pass. Terry Bradshaw finally put things together offensively in 1974 by limiting mistakes and grudgingly playing under the offensive system to put these guys over the hump. They also had the best offensive line of the decade. They are loaded with hall of famers Franco Harris, Lynne Swan, and John Stallworth. Again, I will not compare the whole body of work against the Colts, the Steelers clearly have the nod there. But taking their best season, let's say 1975, do you put that up against the 2005 Colts? I think it's close. The Colts this year are just as dominate this year as the Steelers were in 1975 defensively, I'll make that a push. Offensively, I think the Colts a far and away a better football team. I'm not sure that Bradshaw ever garnered the same respect from his team that Peyton Manning has with his. Granted, this is not cut and dry, but for my money, give me the Colts.

Chicago Bears (1985)
Before this year, this was the most dominate football team I had ever seen. The defense was just ridiculous. I know I said the Steel Curtain was the best, which they are, but for a single season, there has never been a defense that was better (the 1991 Eagles are a close second). However, offensively this team had many question marks other than Walter Payton, who is the best football player of my time. Jim McMahon is a good quarterback who actually had a sharp football mind(while on the field) and managed the game well. However, the guy could not stay healthy enough to finish a game. The offensive line was unbelievable. The wide receivers were suspect at best, Willie Gault and Dennis Gentry did enough do get the job done. The Colts can beat you on either side of the ball. I can't say that about the 1985 Bears.

Miami Dolphins (1971-1974)
This is where it gets a little tricky for me. I can't say that I actually saw that Dolphin team in their heyday. I did get to watch a Steelers game or two in the late seventies, but I only caught this Dolphin team when they were a shell of themselves in the late seventies and into 1980. I could throw stats at you and make my argument there, but it wouldn't be fair to this team. But, I think their winning percentage speaks for itself. The only point I will bring up is that the landscape of the NFL was much different in 1972 than it is now. The league as it stands now is built towards parity, while the system in 1972 was more suited towards building a dynasty. That being said, if the Colts run the table and win the Super Bowl, they will displace what the Dolphins did in 1972 as the greatest feat in NFL history. If you don't believe me, ask them.

Well, there you have it. You may be wondering, "Hey, what about the 1967-1968 Packers?". My hands are cramping up and I have work in the morning. I will say this, all of my points are contingent on the Colts winning the Super Bowl, so that will be a caveat to this post. But, I don't think I have much to worry about there.



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Comments:
Dude, you are high. The 1984 49ers would have bitch-slapped the Colts into complete oblivion. The '84 49ers were the team that wiped out the Marino-led Dolphins 38-16 in SB XIX (no Jerry Rice or John Taylor yet), and came within a horrendous 4th quarter call against Pittsburgh of being undefeated that year. And who did they shut out (23-0) in the NFC Championship in 1984? The Bears of Ditka/Ryan, who are also on your list. If a team can go 18-1 and beat another top-five team, they gotta be considered the best.
 
Firstly, thanks for leaving a comment, you did bring up valid points that were missing from my entry, and should have been in there to be fair to the Niners. Before I respond, I will say that in the 80's the Niners were my favorite team next to the Birds. I wore my Montana jersey every day after school until it broke down into a red thready ball. That being said, if the Colts run the table and win the Super Bowl, and chances are they will barring a freak loss while Jim Sorgi throws 5 picks, my point will at least be debatable. In the 23-0 drubbing of the Bears that year, the Niners defense played very well, however they shut out a Steve Fuller led offense. It was a convincing and spectacular win, but they did not play the same Bears team that was on the field in 1985. Secondly, the NFC didn't really provide a huge challenge to the Niners that year. The Rams were dogmeat, the Redskins and Cowboys took a step back, and the Giants and Bears were on the way up, but not there yet. The Colts could play the Pats, the Chargers, the Broncos, the Bengals, the Jags or the Stellers(mispelling intended) in the playoffs . If they beat any of those two teams and cream the Seahawks or the Panthers, don't you think that would be the best single season team performance of all time? Or for you, as a fan of that team, at least give them the credit of being mentioned in the same breath? I'm not trying to down the '84 Niners or downplay their greatness, but the league that the Colts are playing in now may be comparable, if not slightly better, than the league the '84 Niners played in.
 
The 1984 49ers were the best team of all time. They should have been undefeated that year as well but thats another story. They had the #2 offense behind Marino's circus side show, andthe #1 defense in the league. The balance on that team was science. They averaged 5 yards a carry as a team and Montana had 3600 yards. The '85 Bears unfortunately overshadow them because of flamboyance, but the 84 49ers were better than those Bears and beat the '84 Bears 23-0.

Its too bad that they dont get the credit due to them, sadly after week 12 ESPN experts were comparing the '05 Colts to historical great teams and had the gall to completely bypass the '84 49ers. ESPN is usually wrong and naive but that was just gross negligence!!
 
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